Chaos Germany!

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Re: Chaos Germany!

Unread post by Saul » Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:07 pm

Ahh but I'm talking about 10-20 years in the future. As jobs become redundant due to changing tech, old industries dying out etc. Population growth continuing on it's current trajectory so the UK alone will be well over 70 million by 2030. If the old jobs are not there and the new jobs don't pay enough what do we do?

We could increase income but then prices will also rise so in real terms as will tax so it's not an increase...often it's a cut. Rents are astronomical at the moment. We struggle with ours where we are and if it increased we would be stuffed and that's now in 2018. What about 5 or 10 years time?

What happens when transport is fully automated so no need for train/bus drivers. What about electric cars? Less moving parts, easier to build, less people needed to put them together...actually probably no people needed except those who maintain the robots. Where do all those workers go?

No matter what way you look at it, there will be millions of people out of work...not counting the scroungers here but genuine hard working people who simply will have no jobs to go to. How do they live?

There will of course be new industries but these will be mostly automated. They will have no need of large workforces anymore.

It's a train wreck waiting to happen.

Having said that I do have a feeling there are certain high up people out there who are manoeuvring us into a third world war just to cut down the population and make themselves yet another small fortune into the bargain. :(
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Re: Chaos Germany!

Unread post by Derek » Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:45 pm

Disruptive technology has happened before and we adapt. How many job types of 100 years ago exist today? 500 years ago and most people worked in Agrarian jobs - how many people do that today? So I am a little more optimistic for the future.

The UK population racing to 70M is back to that chestnut of unchecked immigration and Blair's stupid decision to open the flood gates when the Eastern European countries joined the EU (but he and Brown calculated it would bring Labour more votes, especially with Brown's client state model). That and people living longer, but I would sooner control the first one ;) and people just have to accept the need to work longer with the positive spin that they are living longer than their ancestors.
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Re: Chaos Germany!

Unread post by jima » Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:39 pm

Derek wrote:
Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:45 pm
... with the positive spin that they are living longer than their ancestors.
Well, I certainly am! All of my ancestors are dead :)
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Re: Chaos Germany!

Unread post by Saul » Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:44 pm

Yes but 500 years, 100 years ago we didn't have a population approaching 70 million and technology that would do all the work for us. Back then we had the industrial revolution but it still needed a large workforce, the technology revolution doesn't and there are no heavy industry jobs any more to take up the slack.

Immigration certainly affects us at the moment as I am sure it will in the future because despite what the government says about controlling our own borders I will believe that when I see it.

Interesting read here about the UBI experiment in Finland.

The latest experiment in Finland proves that universal basic income works – so why not bring it to the UK?

Universal Basic Income is hot news. As support for it grows across the political spectrum, governments around the world are embarking on pilot studies to evaluate its potential. In a study currently being conducted in Finland, participants are reporting lower stress levels and a greater incentive to work. With record levels of reported stress, and the job market in the UK becoming harsher and more competitive, it’s time the UK seriously considered introducing a Universal Basic Income.

For many people in Britain today, the reality is that if you don’t work, you don’t eat. Of course, people have lived like this for millennia, and still do in many parts of the world. But in Britain, we thought we had put that behind us. The post-World War II settlement promised support “from cradle to grave”: secure jobs, sufficient income to support a family, quality housing at reasonable rents, decent pensions for the old, a safety net for people who couldn’t work and universal healthcare.

This settlement is now being progressively shredded. For many people, secure employment providing sufficient income to keep a family is now a pipe dream. Casual employment, enforced self-employment, zero-hours contracts and other forms of insecure work mean constant stress and worry for an increasing number of people. Will they get paid in time to pay the bills, and will the money be enough for them to have both food and warmth?

The safety net on which the sick, disabled and unemployed relied is in tatters. People who are unable to work through no fault of their own live with constant stress and worry. If they are unemployed, will they be sanctioned for being late for their job centre appointment, and lose all means of support for weeks? If they are sick or disabled, will they suddenly be classified as “fit for work” and lose the benefits they have relied upon for years?

This is the reality of life for a growing number of people in the UK. It is degrading and humiliating to live like this, damaging to mental health and often to physical wellbeing too.

UBI ensures that everyone, regardless of circumstances, has the essential means to live. People with insecure work don’t have to worry about whether they will earn enough this week to pay for food. People who are unemployed can take the time to search for the right job. People who are sick, or who have caring responsibilities, or who want to improve their skills through studying, can reduce their working hours or take a break from paid work.

There would be important economic benefits too. The way we organise work at present is highly inefficient. UBI offers the potential for a much more productive deployment of people.

Forcing people to do any job just to survive is a shocking waste of human capital. Humans are not robots. We are an ingenious, creative, curious species. Innovation is our birthright. Yet far too many people are unable to think, imagine, design, create, because they are too busy juggling multiple drudge jobs and worrying about where the next meal will come from. The stress of constantly trying to meet fixed obligations from insecure income eats at the mind, destroying intelligence and creativity, turning the brain to porridge. We are not robots – but living like this, we become like robots.

Of course, there is nothing new about this. The factories of bygone years were populated with hordes of human robots, doing the same thing day in, day out. But roboticising humans was merely a stop-gap. Increasingly, real robots are being designed that will do routine work considerably better. For some people, this creates an opportunity to do exciting new work in partnership with robot colleagues. But too many others, displaced by robots, are being relegated to an insecure, poverty-stricken existence. Humans, wasted.

When people have a basic income that meets their essential needs, they will no longer need to compete with robots for work. They will be free to design work that uses their unique human abilities. Not only will this restore their dignity, it will also spur the advance of technology into areas where robots have failed to make much impact because people are cheaper.

I often hear people saying, “But how will we afford UBI?” To my mind, we can’t afford NOT to afford it. Our economy is stagnant, our productivity is poor. Yet we are wasting people’s talents. By freeing people from drudgery and enabling them to make best use of their skills and abilities, UBI can raise productivity. And by removing worries about “how will we live?”, UBI could bring about the explosion of entrepreneurialism that is needed to revitalise our economy.
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Re: Chaos Germany!

Unread post by purcell » Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:55 pm

Click the whole story! UBI Netherland etc. _ It´s a lot...click it - all GOOGLE topics!

https://www.worldcrunch.com/culture-soc ... he-world-1

"contains a proposal for a Basic Income in the amount of € 800 per month.
The report presents Basic Income as a very high expense, which would result in insufficient funding for social security and high tax increases."

https://www.google.de/search?q=ubi+neth ... 8weY2oXwBw
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Re: Chaos Germany!

Unread post by Saul » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:00 am

The point is it replaces social security and €800 per month is too low for it to work. For UBI to be effective it needs to cover people's basic living expenses.

This is not an option. Sooner or later we WILL end up in a society that has more people out of work than in work. It's not going to happen now or even in ten or twenty years time but eventually that tipping point will be reached and if we don't think ahead now it will be too late.

Of course there is also the possibility we will be wiped out by some sort of virus or some idiot will kick off a nuclear war. OR we could be hit by a meteor or even invaded by Aliens...we are certainly not hiding our presence in the galaxy ;) I suppose anything could happen.
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Re: Chaos Germany!

Unread post by purcell » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:51 am

As far as we are concerned, we'll probably scrape over that horrorscenes.
First comes first...that first is the CLIMATE CHANGE...for what reason ever!
Hotter,hurricans,tornados,great flood...hotter every year.

We are used to see the world as we know it...since 100 years. (1900 - 2018) Our world and our time!
But I really feel this: There is also a world, we don´t know.
(2030,40-60,80,2100) For sure completely different from our known world / and they have "their" time!

New UN projections: World population growing to 9.8 billion people by 2050. Hanover, June 21, 2017.
The world's population will grow from today's 7.6 billion people to 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Poverty Germany: A single household that has less than 892 euros per month is considered poor.
But this also applies: who has more money, is officially not considered poor.

Even 800€ UBI are not enough...in germany!
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Re: Chaos Germany!

Unread post by Derek » Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:40 pm

Saul wrote:
Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:44 pm
Yes but 500 years, 100 years ago we didn't have a population approaching 70 million and technology that would do all the work for us. Back then we had the industrial revolution but it still needed a large workforce, the technology revolution doesn't and there are no heavy industry jobs any more to take up the slack.
No, but the panic at the turn of the last century (1900s) was of us all starving due to population explosion and the fact that we could not produce enough food. We did by making farming more efficient. That itself disrupted the number of jobs working in Agriculture, but...

Heavy industry has been hit badly since the 70s, but we have more people in work since 1971 as a percentage of the work force, so something has changed. I think it will change again.

And as I said above if population is exploding and a root course is unchecked net immigration then check the immigration.

I was reading the other day that on a global scale population growth is now stabilising (as living ad education standards rise the incentive to have as many children as possible diminishes, but that lags by a generation), and will probably actually fall slightly.

The key thing is that Humans are great innovators and adapters. We need to accept that the future will be different compared to the lives our ancestors had. But I think it will work out.

I haven't read the details of Finland's UBI experiment, maybe their culture helps it work? I still do not see how it would work in the UK where the Blair/Brown "client state vote for labour to keep suckling from us" proved that loads of people were happy to take that as an alternative to working. That remains my concern with a concept like UBI.
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Re: Chaos Germany!

Unread post by tux » Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:02 pm

Even though I don't have the time or energy to argue about it in detail here, I'm 100% with Saul on this one, UBI is necessary and inevitable to avoid a total breakdown of society in the next few decades (possibly sooner).
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Re: Chaos Germany!

Unread post by Saul » Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:12 pm

Derek wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:40 pm

I haven't read the details of Finland's UBI experiment, maybe their culture helps it work? I still do not see how it would work in the UK where the Blair/Brown "client state vote for labour to keep suckling from us" proved that loads of people were happy to take that as an alternative to working. That remains my concern with a concept like UBI.
Certainly that is true of the UK right now. For some reason that I cannot fathom out we allowed a generation of dossers to be brought up, used to living on benefits like it was an automatic entitlement and complaining about "foreigners taking our jobs" when the truth is these people have never done a days work in their lives and are so bloody lazy they would not have done those jobs anyway.

I know people who have spent their entire lives living on benefits, blagging money and housing from the system, in some cases pretending to be unfit for work on medical grounds when there was absolutely nothing wrong with them. Makes me so mad :evil:

I think the reason why UBI works in Finland partly has to do with the fact they only have a population of around 5.5 million in a land mass larger than the UK and Ireland put together. So perhaps pressures on resources are not as great as they are here.
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Re: Chaos Germany!

Unread post by purcell » Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:21 pm

YOU DON´T NEED TO WORK!

"I know people who have spent their entire lives living on benefits, blagging money and housing from the system,..." Saul
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is the truth! Which I have been observing for decades in the neighborhood! ALL FOR FREE!
... FREE FOR ME? NOTHING! I paid always!

I have experienced that people have lived, eaten, lived and laughed for nothing.
And that for over 40 years - throughout! They got social help for 40 years! ... and it worked! ... A lot of families!
Apartment for 40 years free for them !!! ((i)) And I pay the rent! for 40 years continuously! :oops:

I thought to myself: Do I have to be stupid ... to work! You do not need to work! ...
look at the laughing welfare recipients! All for free! Apartment, food, drink, alcohol, bus tickets,all free .... and all that for decades!

Sure! They don´t have a lot of money. But it´s enough for some kind of "easy livin..." ! ... Sure without a car! But...!

Drunk on payday?... the first of the month! For sure! Completely drunk! ..."Let´s have a party! The social assistance money is here!" :mrgreen: :lol:
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Re: Chaos Germany!

Unread post by Saul » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:30 pm

What they all rely on though Purcell is people like us who just plain don't want to live on handouts to keep on working and paying for their lives.

The ones I know, who have been doing this since they left school at 16 so we are talking around 30 years, do have cars, do go on holidays, do have guitars, keyboards, large screen tv's and go to gigs at weekends etc. What they do is claim benefits, get all their living costs like rent, water, heating paid for by the state and at the same time they do cash jobs here and there to subsidise the state benefit but without declaring it so they pay no tax. So many people like that here in the UK.

The UK Welfare bill for 2018 is estimated at over £114 billion! 8O

That is completely obscene! I reckon if we only paid benefits to the people who really needed it we could cut that bill by over half. That would mean more schools, hospitals, local services for everyone. We absolutely MUST crack down on the scroungers and work shy or that bill is just going to continue to grow year on year and we can't afford it. :/:

...but then again, isn't this sort of like the Universal Basic Income I talked about? Only not everyone gets it :(
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Re: Chaos Germany!

Unread post by purcell » Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:06 am

That needs an experiment!
Do not do anything anymore! Now!
See what happens!

Money problems will appear automatically!
But all that people - living for free and doing nothing - for 40 years. Have somehow or well survived.
"UBI" ???... they had "UBI" for about 40 years... doing nothing. Telling you: UBI 900 € is twice as high as the social money. "Wonderful!"
That UBI should also cause huge alcohol problems. Do nothing ... and just drink.
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Re: Chaos Germany!

Unread post by tux » Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:26 am

purcell wrote:
Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:06 am
Telling you: UBI 900 € is twice as high as the social money. "Wonderful!"
It isn't, because UBI would replace almost all benefits. Today they might only get 500€ 'social money' but they also get their rent paid and many other benefits. All of those benefits would be replaced by UBI.

Since UBI would be the same for everyone, it would have many other positive side-effects.

First of all no more social envy, between low earners and people who live on benefits (both would get the same amount of UBI, earned income is money on top).
Also it would favour more social cohesion as it's cheaper for couples and families to live together under on roof (rather than as it is now where single mums get the most benefits, which is currently a strong incentive for the father to live separately even when the couple is not estranged) and for singles to live in a flatshare rather than on their own.
This in turn would alleviate the housing crisis.
And all those people that currently don't work because they are better off on benefits would suddenly have a reason to work as any earned income would be on top of the UBI.
Last edited by tux on Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:01 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Chaos Germany!

Unread post by tux » Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:42 am

Saul wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:30 pm
What they do is claim benefits, get all their living costs like rent, water, heating paid for by the state and at the same time they do cash jobs here and there to subsidise the state benefit but without declaring it so they pay no tax.
The reason why they do cash in hand jobs is not so much to avoid tax but because they would lose their benefits which in most cases means they would be no better off or actually worse off than on benefits.
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