Anyone else's musical technology acquisitions effected by the 'current situation'?

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silverlight
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Anyone else's musical technology acquisitions effected by the 'current situation'?

Unread post by silverlight »

I recently ordered the Behringer Poly D through Behringer Singapore. However last week they cancelled my order and refunded me because the Behringer main factory in china is currently closed until further notice due to the situation in China and the Singapore distributor cannot restock at this time. They didn't mention coronavirus by name in their email to me, but that is my opinion that they must be referring to it.
Anyone else experiencing similar problems? With Behringer products or other manufacturers?


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Re: Anyone else's musical technology acquisitions effected by the 'current situation'?

Unread post by Saul »

Not having any issues with music products but the situation is definitely having a knock-on effect with my other main interests, Metal Detecting. A lot of machines and parts for machines are manufactured in China and specifically in factories in the affected areas. We have been waiting on stocks of new machines for some time now and the situation doesn't look like improving any time soon :(


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Re: Anyone else's musical technology acquisitions effected by the 'current situation'?

Unread post by silverlight »

Interesting Saul...personally I don't take any news I read in the mainstream medias at face value...something is going on but we are not getting told the real story. I got to thinking that maybe some kind of major economic/business re-alignment is happening at the moment. I'm guessing that eventually things will return to normal, or a new normal...we will have to wait and see

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Re: Anyone else's musical technology acquisitions effected by the 'current situation'?

Unread post by shelly0624 »

My jewelry supply places from China are all closed down. My main supplier for components won't be shipping until March 1st "due to spring festival". (That must be a new holiday. I've ordered from them for years and don't recall that one) ... :think: Manyof the sellers from China on Ebay have closed their shops temporarily.

Seriously though, I hope this virus passes quickly for them. What a terrible thing. Just the flu can be dangerous but there is such a concentrated population and there were no immediate symptoms for this virus until it had spread. The people are holed up in their homes. . A person wonders about people with jobs and the overall economy. No income for how long? I think the effects will extend beyond the illness. How do they pay for rent (or anything else)? China depends on exported goods, so this will be felt.


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Re: Anyone else's musical technology acquisitions effected by the 'current situation'?

Unread post by Saul »

A "new normal" I think might be right on the money there Dave. Things are shifting in the world. China was already suffering its lowest growth for years. The trade war with the USA didn't help. And then there is the fallout from the ongoing problems in Hong Kong. Now they have this Covid-19 virus.

Some are calling it "China's Chernobyl" moment. First the outbreak. Then local party officials trying to pretend nothing is wrong. Silencing any mention of it until a doctor blows the whistle. He is immediately silenced. Clampdown on any talk of it in the media. Eventually, it becomes too big for a cover-up by which time it is already starting to affect the rest of the world.

Chernobyl was the catalyst that began the end of the Soviet Union. No one is suggesting that Covid-19 will have such a wide-reaching effect on China but it will certainly have quite an impact. And of course, we still don't know where it is headed.

To put it in perspective though. Here in the UK, we have an average of 600 deaths a year from the flu. Some years that rises to 10,000 and back in 2008/2009 there were more than 13,000 deaths. And remember this is just in the UK.

Total deaths from Covid-19 so far have been 1,380 worldwide!

The virus is having a disproportionate effect because of where it's epicenter is. Right in the heart of China's tech production regions.

That is having a massive knock-on effect on the rest of the world. Perhaps this will lead to less centralizing of production in one country?


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Re: Anyone else's musical technology acquisitions effected by the 'current situation'?

Unread post by Saul »

shelly0624 wrote: Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:29 am My jewelry supply places from China are all closed down. My main supplier for components won't be shipping until March 1st "due to spring festival". (That must be a new holiday. I've ordered from them for years and don't recall that one) ... :think: Many of the sellers from China on eBay have closed their shops temporarily.

Seriously though, I hope this virus passes quickly for them. What a terrible thing. Just the flu can be dangerous but there is such a concentrated population and there were no immediate symptoms for this virus until it had spread. The people are holed up in their homes. . A person wonders about people with jobs and the overall economy. No income for how long? I think the effects will extend beyond the illness. How do they pay for rent (or anything else)? China depends on exported goods, so this will be felt.
That "Spring Festival" is actually another name for the Chinese New Year. They are the same thing. It is due to the Chinese New Year being celebrated from 23rd Jan through to around the 15th March. That is one hell of a holiday!

Many companies are quoting delivery times in March but actually they have no idea if they will be able to meet that timeline. If the closure of factories goes on much longer it could stretch the supply chain into April or May. It will in any case compound the current problems with backorders etc.

The big problem with this particular virus is that many people had traveled with it outside China before the containment was enacted. Hence why we are seeing it popping up across the world now. It has even appeared local to me. We have had 8 cases reported in Brighton which just 15 miles away and more in Worthing which is around 20 miles from here.

We can only wait and see how it goes. If the virus mutates then we may be looking at a much more serious problem but for now, I can't see it is any worse than the flu.


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Re: Anyone else's musical technology acquisitions effected by the 'current situation'?

Unread post by silverlight »

Saul wrote: Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:19 pm A "new normal" I think might be right on the money there Dave. Things are shifting in the world. China was already suffering its lowest growth for years. The trade war with the USA didn't help. And then there is the fallout from the ongoing problems in Hong Kong. Now they have this Covid-19 virus.

Some are calling it "China's Chernobyl" moment. First the outbreak. Then local party officials trying to pretend nothing is wrong. Silencing any mention of it until a doctor blows the whistle. He is immediately silenced. Clampdown on any talk of it in the media. Eventually, it becomes too big for a cover-up by which time it is already starting to affect the rest of the world.

Chernobyl was the catalyst that began the end of the Soviet Union. No one is suggesting that Covid-19 will have such a wide-reaching effect on China but it will certainly have quite an impact. And of course, we still don't know where it is headed.

To put it in perspective though. Here in the UK, we have an average of 600 deaths a year from the flu. Some years that rises to 10,000 and back in 2008/2009 there were more than 13,000 deaths. And remember this is just in the UK.

Total deaths from Covid-19 so far have been 1,380 worldwide!

The virus is having a disproportionate effect because of where it's epicenter is. Right in the heart of China's tech production regions.

That is having a massive knock-on effect on the rest of the world. Perhaps this will lead to less centralizing of production in one country?
You raise some good points there Saul. I heard there was a flu epidemic in the US a few years back which apparently killed 80,000 people. Again, like your figures for the UK, it helps put the current virus in perspective. Can't help but think that there has been somewhat of an over-reaction to this virus by governmental and media organisations...good for THEIR business though!

And then, as you pointed out, put this whole thing in the context of the current trade war between US and China, the HK situation and the constant propaganda/espionage/intelligence wars happening behind the scenes...

And then, like Shelly0624 said, spare a thought for the ordinary working people and smaller business operators in China, who must be suffering really badly right now...

Thanks for the replies on the topic, has been good for my understanding to hear other people's views on this

Dave


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Re: Anyone else's musical technology acquisitions effected by the 'current situation'?

Unread post by Saul »

Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year.

Compared to deaths so far from the Covid-19 outbreak at just over 1000 it would initially look like this new virus is pretty insignificant.

However, when you look at how many people are infected with flu, which so far this year is 31 million in American alone you soon realize that the mortality rate from Covid-19 is an order of magnitude higher. Flu mortality rates in the US are around 0.095%

Mortality rates for Covid-19 are currently running at about 2% but could be as high as 9%. The mortality rate from the SARS outbreak in 2003 was 10%.

So whilst I think the scaremongering that is currently going on in the media is out of proportion to facts on the ground, maybe it is better to be overly cautious and have it turn into nothing than be complacent and end up with another Spanish Flu on our hands?

No matter where this goes it does demonstrate the problems of concentrating production in one area even if it does reduce costs.

I can see some countries returning production to their own territory which may increase costs but would have a number of benefits not least of which is no disruption to the supply chain, increased local employment and a massive boost to the local economy.

The big question is, ar we as consumers willing to pay the extra cost?


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Re: Anyone else's musical technology acquisitions effected by the 'current situation'?

Unread post by Rara »

A little late to the party with this post, some of my orders related to my music
gear has been considerably held up. One order made in December has finally arrived last week.
Some made last week of January are held up somewhere, small parts to fix my keyboards.
It would be nice to see production of various things start up again locally. It means I'd be able to buy
shoes and clothes again which actually fit properly.

Rara 0-)


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Re: Anyone else's musical technology acquisitions effected by the 'current situation'?

Unread post by Saul »

Rara wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:33 am It would be nice to see the production of various things start up again locally. It means I'd be able to buy
shoes and clothes again which actually fit properly.

Rara 0-)
There are always people who come out of a crisis much better than they went into it. Some enterprising souls will probably look to doing exactly that Rara. Producing goods locally, even on a small scale could turn into quite a successful business. Perhaps 3D printers will be one of those things to see a boost in sales right now?


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Re: Anyone else's musical technology acquisitions effected by the 'current situation'?

Unread post by Derek »

Saul wrote: Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:13 am
Mortality rates for Covid-19 are currently running at about 2% but could be as high as 9%. The mortality rate from the SARS outbreak in 2003 was 10%.

So whilst I think the scaremongering that is currently going on in the media is out of proportion to facts on the ground, maybe it is better to be overly cautious and have it turn into nothing than be complacent and end up with another Spanish Flu on our hands?
Be careful with the statistics you are given. :)

The mortality rates quoted in that percentile range are for the deaths amongst confirmed cases. When you factor in the number of estimated unconfirmed cases of possible greater than one million already in UK and the current death toll of around 1000 UK then that makes the death rate around 0.1%.

That could ramp up of course, and the issue remains that the issue with COVID-19 is how quickly it spreads and the threat to our unprepared health services. I say the latter part carefully, as yes, we have wonderful people in our health services, but all of the work being done now to increase capacity should have started the minute we saw it getting out of control in China. There was a Pandemic exercise in the UK in 20216 which showed we would have all of the problems we are seeing today if we were not prepared. There is no point in during disaster stress testing, if you do not act on the findings.

Back OT, with a lot of electronic components now being sourced from the far east, it is inevitable that we are going to have supply problems. One of the lessons learnt from this should be the fragility of just in time global supply chains. It may lead to more onshoring again and more jobs in our country. We may have to pay more for our goods due to labour rates, but that is a price worth paying IMO.


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